Republican Tim Sheehy leads Sen. Jon Tester Democrat in one of the most critical races of the national Senate 2024 election, according to new AARP polling. Whichever party wins this race is likely to control the Senate in 2025.
With West Virginia all but certain to flip to Republican, Democrats must win the eight other seats to keep the Senate at a 50-50 margin, & have VP Tim Walz as tie-breaker. Polling is tight in Pennsylvania and Ohio, but Montana appears to be the most perilous for Democrats.
New polling by AARP shows Sheehy up 49% to Tester's 41% when the full ballot with third- party candidates is included and 51% to 45% in a head-to-head race.
The GOP, which has been hit hard by Vice President Kamala Harris moving to the top of the Democratic ticket, but Montanans remember Tester urging Joe Biden to seek reelection.
Protecting the Tester seat is the Democratic Party's top priority in the Senate.
Democrats have poured $128 million into Montana Senate race advertising and ad reservations so far this cycle, compared to $109 million from Republicans, according to published data.
Democrats for years have had a substantial fundraising advantage over Republicans. Tester is unique. A Democrat who has won in a deeply-red state three elections in a row. The race is right around the margin of error — the kind of tight race Tester has won before. Yet, this is the first race for Tester with President Donald J. Trump will be on the same ballot. Trump won Montana by 16 percentage points in 2020 and 21 points in 2016.
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